Influence of Topography and the Underlying Surface of the Bohai Sea on Wind and Gust Forecasts

Abstract Accurate gust forecasts can reduce potential threats to people's lives and properties, but we need more reliable forecasting methods models. A recent development is the meteorologically stratified factor (MSGF) model, which accurate in gusts than previous model. The regional terrain underlying surface both have crucial effects on factor. We therefore combined observations from China Meteorological Administration over ocean along coast with MSGF model explore influence of topography wind forecasts. affected peak climatologies, mean speed, prevailing direction factors. had different impacts ranges speed. strong turbulence that causes changes under light winds not initiated rough surfaces. When speed >2.5 m s −1 , influences stimulates stronger increases factor, whereas a smooth directly by magnitudes difference between them, thus decreasing evaluated ability forecast verified method combining products numerical